What do voters who switched from Joe Biden to Donald Trump actually think now — and what does that tell us about the health of American democracy heading into the 2026 midterms? A months-long listening project has been tracking exactly that, offering a rare, unfiltered window into the minds of the voters who most often determine election outcomes.
Throughout 2026, NPR has partnered with the Swing Voter Project to sit in on monthly online focus groups featuring voters in key swing states. The project is run by messaging firm Engagious and market research recruiting firm Nelson Recruiting. The participants all share a specific political profile: they voted for Biden in 2020, then switched to Trump in 2024. Their evolving views offer a direct read on how a critical segment of the American electorate is processing the current political moment.
Reporters Ashley Lopez, Mara Liasson, Miles Parks, and Domenico Montanaro recently gathered for a special hour-long discussion distilling what the project has revealed this year. Their reporting, available through NPR’s Elections coverage, surfaces five key findings that matter for anyone following American democracy ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Biden-to-Trump Voters Turned on the President — Fast
Perhaps the most striking finding from the project is how quickly these swing voters soured on Trump after helping elect him. These are not lifelong Republicans expressing buyer’s remorse — they are voters who made a deliberate switch and are now questioning whether that switch translated into the change they were hoping for. Their disillusionment raises a broader democratic question: when voters cast a ballot expecting a different direction, and don’t feel that direction materializing, what does that mean for their continued engagement with the process?
Voters Connect Trump’s Decisions Directly to Their Wallets
These voters are not viewing the economy in the abstract. They are drawing direct lines between specific presidential decisions and how they feel about their own financial situations. That kind of concrete, cause-and-effect thinking is significant — it suggests voters are paying close attention and holding leadership accountable in tangible ways rather than relying on partisan identity alone.
Democrats Aren’t Winning These Voters Back — Yet
Disillusionment with Trump has not translated into enthusiasm for Democrats. The project found that the Democratic Party is not particularly popular among these swing voters either. That dynamic is a familiar one in American politics, but it is especially pointed here: voters who once crossed party lines to vote for Trump are not necessarily ready to cross back. It underscores how dissatisfied large swaths of the electorate are with both major parties — a finding that has real implications for voter participation and turnout as the next election cycle approaches.
Left and Right Finding Common Ground on Economic Populism
One of the more unexpected findings is an apparent convergence across partisan lines around economic populism. Voters from both the left and right in these focus groups appear to share frustrations about concentrated economic power and the sense that the system is not working for ordinary people. The project found broad support for policies that push back against that concentration — a sign that economic concerns may be reshaping how some voters think about political identity, regardless of party affiliation.
Artificial Intelligence Is Raising Real Concerns Among Voters
The focus groups also surfaced widespread unease about artificial intelligence and the rapid proliferation of data centers. Voters expressed broad concern about where this technology is heading and what it means for their communities and daily lives. These anxieties reflect a population that is thinking seriously about technological change, even if they don’t yet have a clear political home for those concerns.
The special audio discussion — “Swing voters and the issues that matter” — was edited by Ben Swasey and produced by Lexie Schapitl. NPR does not offer or accept money for coverage or interviews. Anyone who makes such an offer or request is not an NPR employee and does not represent NPR.