After years of shrinking reservoirs and tightening water restrictions, communities across the American Southwest are getting an unlikely reprieve — not from snow, but from an unexpected surge of autumn rain and flooding. The storms have caused damage and displacement, but they’ve also delivered something the region desperately needed: water.
Recent flooding across the U.S. Southwest has pushed water into parched reservoirs and underground aquifers that have been suffering through a years-long megadrought. Hundreds of residents were forced to evacuate as normally dry creek beds turned into raging rivers, cutting off access to some communities. But despite the disruption, most of that water is now doing exactly what the region needs — soaking into the ground and filling depleted lakes.
Martin Hoerling, a climate scientist and hydrologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder, described the development in straightforward terms:
“That’s somewhat of an unexpected boost from Mother Nature.”
Lake Powell Sees Significant Rise
One of the most striking signs of the turnaround is at Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir in the United States. The lake rose more than 20 feet (6.1 meters) from its mid-September low — a gain that far exceeded what this year’s lackluster snowfall contributed when it melted in spring and summer. Even so, Lake Powell sits at just over a quarter of its capacity, and 15 of its 17 boat launches remained unusable as of last Friday.
Hoerling estimates that the floodwaters and additional rainfall could push the lake’s total gains to over 1.2 million acre-feet — enough water to supply roughly 4 million average American families for an entire year.
The storms are being driven in part by El Niño, a climate pattern that intensifies heavy rain and flooding. Experts say its effects are expected to continue for several more months, which could mean further boosts to water supplies stored in lakes, aquifers, and snowpack across the West.
Local Communities Feel the Difference
Towns throughout the region recorded some of their wettest weather in decades. In Pagosa Springs, Colorado, roughly 7 inches of rain fell in October, arriving just as more than 10,000 residents in the town and surrounding area were living under water restrictions. Restaurants had been asked to serve water only when customers requested it. Those restrictions have since been lifted.
Pagosa Springs Town Manager David Harris acknowledged that the storms came at a cost but pointed to a larger benefit:
“While the storm was destructive, I think there is a silver lining. You’re getting a good start to the winter snowpack in the higher elevations.”
Flagstaff, Arizona, also saw dramatic improvements to its water supply. Upper Lake Mary — which captures spring snowmelt and provides up to 40% of Flagstaff’s water — received more than 3 billion gallons of water since early October, according to Brian Huntzinger, the city’s water production manager. Storms last weekend alone dumped more than two years’ worth of water into the town’s surface water supply, easing pressure on the underground aquifers the city heavily depends on.
“It’s just a great, great thing to see,”
Huntzinger said.
“We might be overflowing at this rate before we see any snow fly.”
In central Arizona, intense floodwaters that temporarily trapped people in their homes flowed into streams feeding the Verde River. That led water officials to release water from two nearly full dams into a normally dry stretch of the Verde River running through metro Phoenix. Bo Svoma, principal meteorologist at the Salt River Project, which manages reservoirs on the Salt and Verde rivers, described the situation as a direct result of the recent heavy weather. Some Arizona cities have already agreed to fund preliminary work on expanding a dam on the Verde River to better capture storm runoff in the future, Svoma said.
Reports also emerged of Navajo voters hopping tractors and making extraordinary efforts to vote after widespread flooding cut off access to their communities, underscoring the real human toll the storms have taken even as they replenish water supplies.
Long-Term Challenges Remain
Despite the encouraging rainfall, the Southwest remains in drought, and the structural challenges facing the Colorado River have not changed overnight. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which oversees reservoirs across the West, is not expected to adjust its water release plans until snowpack levels peak — typically around April. Reclamation spokesperson Mary Carlson acknowledged the improved conditions but noted that
“considerable uncertainty remains.”
Under an existing federal agreement, California, Nevada and Arizona are required to collectively cut their Colorado River water use by 1.25 million acre-feet annually over the next two years — equivalent to filling more than 600,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Depending on conditions, even larger cuts could follow. Nevada and Arizona are currently challenging the plan in court.
Jack Schmidt, a Colorado River researcher and professor at Utah State University, said federal managers will want to see how snowpack develops before making any significant decisions about water allocations from Lake Powell or other sources.
For Hoerling, the rains are a welcome development but not a solution. As he put it:
“We need to figure out how to be resilient in a drier future. And we’re not quite there yet.”
For more reporting on this story, visit KNAU and Arizona News, where Wufei Yu of the Associated Press has covered the flooding and its regional impacts.