The Economic Costs of Mass Deportations of Long-Time Residents

By Cristobal Ramon and Gabrielle Berger 

The mass deportation of the country’s 11 million undocumented individuals would hurt the U.S. economy. Studies and many economists suggest that removing workers central to key industries in the United States would increase inflation as well as food and housing costs.  

Recent studies also suggest that round ups and removals of the undocumented will reduce the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and hurt its tax base. Studies of past large-scale enforcement efforts also suggest that deporting these workers could harm the employment prospects of U.S. citizen workers.  

These findings strongly suggest that legalizing individuals — not deporting them — would strengthen the U.S. economy by allowing them to fully participate in the labor market and align with the immigration goals of Latino voters who prioritized legalization over mass deportations. 

Mass Deportations Will Target Workers Essential to Reducing Inflation and Other Costs 

Mass deportation is costly for the U.S. because it removes workers who play a key role in our economy. In 2020, the Pew Research Center estimated undocumented workers formed 22% of all agriculture jobs, 15% of all construction jobs and 8% of all manufacturing jobs. More broadly, the Center noted the U.S. workforce had 8.3 million undocumented workers in 2022, representing 4.8% of all U.S. workers. 

Mass deportations could impact the cost of specific goods and services in these sectors. In the case of agriculture, deporting undocumented workers could lead to higher food prices because fewer individuals would be able to pick produce and process food products. These actions could also impact housing prices by reducing the number of workers who could help construct more housing, which would keep these prices high due to a shortfall in homes at a time when Americans — including Latinos — are struggling to purchase a home. 

Deporting these individuals will also undermine the nation’s efforts to fight inflation. Economists believe the loss of immigrant labor during the COVID-19 pandemic helped fuel inflation by reducing the production of goods and services needed to meet demand from consumers, increasing prices. Some studies show that mass deportations could repeat this scenario. A June 2024 study found that deporting 7.5 million undocumented workers would produce three years of higher inflation, which would peak at 3.1% points.¹ 

Mass Deportations Will Have a Real Price Tag for the U.S. Economy and the Country’s Tax Base 

Current proposals to deport all undocumented immigrants would also impose significant losses for the U.S. economy.² Deporting the nation’s 8.1 million undocumented workers, who comprise 5% of the nation’s workforce would reduce its GDP by 2.6% — nearly $5 trillion — over 10 years. Other studies show deporting this population would not present any fiscal savings for the U.S. government, noting these measures would cost at least $1.6 trillion. Finally, deporting these individuals would cost $46.8 billion in federal taxes, $29.3 billion in state and local taxes and $22.6 billion in Social Security tax payments. 

Mass deportations would also impose significant costs on the U.S. government. Deporting the undocumented all at once would cost the U.S. government at least $315 billion, an amount that expands to $967.9 billion if the U.S. deports one million individuals every year for a decade. These costs would stem from extensive expenditures on detention facilities and the complex logistics to carry out these operations.³ For instance, the government would need to secure significantly more beds for migrant detention facilities at a cost of $57,378 per year per bed.  

Past National Immigration Enforcement Efforts Suggest Mass Deportations Could Hurt U.S. Citizen Workers’ Employment Rates 

Research also shows that large scale enforcement efforts that targeted undocumented workers reduced employment for immigrants and U.S. citizens, suggesting that mass deportations could produce similar effects at a larger scale.  

A 2023 study that assessed⁴ how Secure Communities, a national information-sharing enforcement program that helped deport 424,000 individuals between 2010 and 2015, impacted the U.S. labor market found it had removed 400,000 low-skilled non-citizen workers from the U.S. economy. It also reduced the employment for low-to-middle skilled immigrants by 13% between 2008 and 2013 and mid-to-high-skilled U.S. citizen workers by 2.5%.⁵ 

Secure Communities had similar impacts on specific job sectors reliant on immigrant workers. A 2022 study that examined how the program impacted employment rates in the early childhood care sector observed the increased fear of deportation during this period deterred 8.6 percent of low-educated workers from pursuing this work, due to a 15.8% drop in Hispanic immigrant childhood care workers. The program also reduced low-skilled native-born worker levels by 2.8% and high-skilled ones by 2%. 

The 2023 study concluded Secure Communities led to a decline in employment rates for U.S. citizens workers because the removal of low-skill immigrants raised labor costs, reducing employer demand for mid-to-high skilled U.S. citizens with higher salaries. Removing these workers also led to decreases in local consumption, generating revenue losses for employers that led to further workforce reductions. The loss of low-skilled immigrants meant early childhood care employers no longer needed as many low-to high-skilled U.S. citizen workers to complement their skills, leading to reduced employment for these groups. 

Legalization, Not Mass Deportations, Is the Right Move for the U.S. Economy 

Mass deportations will produce few tangible benefits for the country. In addition to undermining the country’s economic growth, these measures will compound inflation at a time when voters want lawmakers to reduce rising costs. Given that mass deportations will remove more individuals than Secure Communities, employers may hire fewer U.S.-born workers due to rising labor costs stemming from the large gaps left behind in the U.S. economy due to these actions. 

Rather than pursuing a costly strategy for U.S. workers and employers, lawmakers should legalize the undocumented to strengthen the U.S. economy. Estimates show legalizing undocumented workers would generate $1.5 trillion towards the nation’s GDP over 10 years, $367 in cumulative new tax revenues and create 371,000 new jobs by 2031. Other estimates show legalizing all undocumented immigrants would produce $1.7 trillion over 10 years and create 438,800 new jobs. In short, legalization is the right move for boosting our country’s future economic prospects.